Modeling of a Super-Spreading Event of the Mers-Corona Virus during the Hajj Season using Simulation of the Existing Data

Abstract

The Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has exhibited super-spreading events in recent years. In this work, we investigate the effects a possible super-spreading event in one of the largest annual mass gatherings: the Hajj season in the Kingdome Saudi Arabia (KSA). Since the KSA has the most significant confirmed number of MERS-CoV, we assume that super-spreaders are only from the local population. By the use of an extended SIR model, we considered two subpopulations: local and non-local pilgrims, were calculated the basic reproduction number and final size of the epidemic. Simulation of the existing data gives find the estimation of the basic reproduction number is less than one, although the final size of the epidemic shows proportionality to the super-spreading effect.